The fate of the brothers – regardless of what social media, the courts or California’s parole board recommends – ultimately rests with one man: Governor Newsom, who has the power to accept or reject any parole recommendation.
And many believe that man is considering a run for president in 2028.
Since the last election, Newsom has been undergoing a political transformation, shifting from crusading liberal pushing universal healthcare to a more moderate, pragmatic approach, most recently proposing freezing healthcare for undocumented immigrants.
Weighing in on such a divisive case could be “risky”, said Pennsylvania-based Republican political strategist Sam Chen.
“Can you imagine a reality TV show of the Menendez brothers while Newsom is trying to run for president? Talk about free campaign airtime,” he said. “That would be the worst thing for him.”
Although no one knows which way he is leaning, Newsom has mentioned the case several times on social media and on his podcast.
“The question for the board is a rather simple one,” Newsom said in February on TikTok. “Do they pose a current, what we call ‘unreasonable’ risk to public safety.”
Mr Rand acknowledged the case is “risky” politically for Newsom.
“You can’t get around the elephant in the room: They brutally murdered their parents,” Rand told the BBC. “But if you do believe that they were abused and that they suffered from a lifetime of abuse – and there actually is evidence that supports their story – it’s a very different situation.”
The brothers have not committed violent crimes while in prison, a fact the judge in their resentencing hearing considered, although they did have infractions for using cell phones smuggled into prison.
They’ve also led productive lives while incarcerated, with Erik founding a hospice programme to help elderly and disabled inmates while Lyle has been working on prison beautification.
Remarkably, every single surviving member of their family – from cousins to aunts and uncles – want the Menendez brothers released, including the surviving siblings of Jose and Kitty Menendez.
“They chose to live their lives with clarity and a purpose of service,” their cousin Anamaria Baralt said outside the court after they were resentenced.
If the board recommends parole in June, the governor has 30 days to accept or reject the recommendation. If they are paroled, the brothers will be released likely within five months, according to the California Department of Corrections.
The fact that Gov Newsom ordered the state parole board to conduct a comprehensive risk assessment before the brothers were even deemed eligible for parole has many thinking he’s open to releasing them.
“He wants the political cover” of the parole board and court recommendations, said Neama Rahmani, a former federal prosecutor who has been following the brothers’ legal saga but is not representing any of the participants.
A year ago, Mr Rahmani never would have predicted the Menendez brothers could be released. Now he thinks they will be free within the next few months.
But it wouldn’t be unprecedented for Gov Newsom to reject a high-profile parole recommendation.
Several times he blocked the release of a Manson Family member. And in 2022, Newsom blocked the release of Sirhan Sirhan, the man who assassinated Sen Robert F Kennedy.
As far as the Menendez brothers go, Gov Newsom said on his podcast that he’s mulling over the case and he’s not planning to watch any of the documentaries or true crime dramas about the case.
“I’m obviously familiar with the Menendez brothers just through the news over the course of many decades, but not to the degree that many others are because of all of these documentaries and all of the attention they’ve received,” he said. “So that won’t bias my independent and objective review of the facts.”